The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

This volume pulls together and republishes, with some editing, updating, and additions, articles written during 1978-86 for internal use within the CIA Directorate of Intelligence. The information is relatively timeless and still relevant to the never-ending quest for better analysis. The articles are based on reviewing cognitive psychology literature concerning how people process information to make judgments on incomplete and ambiguous information. Richard Heur has selected the experiments and findings that seem most relevant to intelligence analysis and most in need of communication to intelligence analysts. He then translates the technical reports into language that intelligence analysts can understand and interpreted the relevance of these findings to the problems intelligence analysts face. Table Of Contents: Table of Contents Author’s Preface Foreword by Douglas MacEachin Introduction by Jack Davis PART I–OUR MENTAL MACHINERY Chapter 1: Thinking About Thinking Chapter 2: Perception: Why Can’t We See What Is There to Be Seen? Chapter 3: Memory: How Do We Remember What We Know? PART II–TOOLS FOR THINKING Chapter 4: Strategies for Analytical Judgment: Transcending the Limits of Incomplete Information Chapter 5: Do You Really Need More Information? Chapter 6: Keeping an Open Mind Chapter 7: Structuring Analytical Problems Chapter 8: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses PART III–COGNITIVE BIASES Chapter 9: What Are Cognitive Biases? Chapter 10: Biases in Evaluation of Evidence Chapter 11: Biases in Perception of Cause and Effect Chapter 12: Biases in Estimating Probabilities Chapter 13: Hindsight Biases in Evaluation of Intelligence Reporting PART IV–CONCLUSIONS Chapter 14: Improving Intelligence